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Bulls and Bears

News/Business. The latest market news; the week ahead on Wall Street. (CC)

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Us 4, Todd 3, Maryland 2, Greece 2, Michigan 2, Julian 2, Jonas 2, Obama 2, Gys 1, Gary 1, Wisconsin 1, Mattel 1, Doug 1, Da 1, Neil 1, Goup 1, Tok 1, The Cash-strapped City 1, N Ct 1, Advanta 1,
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  FOX Business    Bulls and Bears    News/Business. The latest market  
   news; the week ahead on Wall Street. (CC)  

    December 9, 2012
    1:00 - 1:30am EST  

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>> i believe government is here to fix our streets, roads, and protect us, but they don't need to protect people from their jobs. >> three cheers for her. you at home who understand it's freedom, not central planning that gives us better lives, that's our show. thanks for watching, i'm john stossel. ♪ >> eric: watch the 5 nt week. >> the 5 p.m. or the show? thank for joining us. >> see you tomorrow. >> brenda: just as the unemployment rate is dropping, isapitol hill signaling tax heights are coming? add up the signs. a key conseative leaving the senate for the private sector epublicans reportedly cook up a doomsday plan that would give the president the tax hikes he wants. so if taxes goup, will jobs
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go down? hi, everyone, i'm brenda buttner, this is bulls and bears, let's get right to it. here they are, the bulls and bears this week. we've got gary b smith, tobin smith. and julian epstein, welcome to everybody. todd, if taxes go up, get ready for that unemployment rate to shoots u, too. >> you've got that right. brenda, not only going to go higher, we're looking at hundreds of thousands of jobs eliminated because of higher taxes. you can't, you can't simply look at small business owners small business comprise of two-thirds of all jobs created in the country in the last ten years, if you're going to raise that personal income tax, that's going to hit the small business owners they won't have enough to go out and hire and we all have to be epared because the lor picture is going to get fragile real quick. >> julian, you agree? >> no, and a certain point on the show and elsewhere we have to stop utterin opinions and using facts. the most definitive study done
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about this, the nonpartisan agency that republicans and democrats agree to be the ultimateuthoty is the congressional budget office. they looked at this question and they found that raising the top, the rates on the top 2% will have virtually no impact on gdp airtually no impact on job formation, the republicans in congress didn't like that study. so they asked the crs. congressional research service to review the data and come up with conclusions and guess what, they looked at this and said the same thing, almosto impact on job creation, no impact on gdp formation, most all of t economists seem to be unanimous about this, that the obama plan. >> let me finish the point. the obama plan finishes the rate on the top 2% will have virtually no impact on job formation. >> i resemble your remark about facts and opinions, we have both on this show. >> let's hear the data. >> brenda: gary b, youo right to it. >> you know, julian has his study and you know, the other
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side hasnother study, ernst & young-- >> no, they don't. >> the report. >> wait, julian, you've got to let me finish, okay? they have a study saying, raising the taxes on the rich would cost 700,000 jobs. the cbhich julian likes said that just if we allowed all the bush tax cuts to expire and the-- the amt, the alternative minimum tax would be addressed, that's 1.8 million jobs, so, no matter how you cut it, even if we just looked anecdotally julian doesn't like. he's a wealthy guynd earnings a lot of of money, ifs' less money to his bottom line next year, i guarantee julian will have to cut back on the landscaping that he does and probably the guy that dves his car, and all of that other stuff. it just doesn't make sense from where you look at the numbers or whether you're looking anecdotally, it doesn't make sense that people's bottom line will be cut and there will be no jobs lost. there obviously will be jobs-- >> okay, okay, hold on.
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>> a huge problem when i don't have someone to. >> julian, hold on, i've got other people to go to. we only tease you because you we like you. jonas, any attempt to c the debt is going to hurt the economy. >> when you can't fit a driver in a smart car, that's part the of the problem. there are studies that say over million people and other deficits, close the huge deficits might not have a huge effect on the economy, however, if taxes across the board and let's not forget the spending cuts that are ought mattic in the defense industry, defense industry alone is looking at hundreds of thousands of job cuts next year with nos mandatory cuts go into effect. i'm not saying they are. sot's both cutting and taxing, we're too focused on the tax. bottom line, the government takes it out of the system cutting and raising taxes and the small or deficit. that means tt people are
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going to be out of work, almost by definition in the short run. but in the long run it's a healthier economy that doesn't go down the path of greece. if the long run greece would have low unemployment, but they do not, but yes, we're going to go a percent, if it happen the worse case scenario, but in five years we won't be notble to borrow money. >> brenda: julian, you can go ahead and respd. >> first of all, the ernst & young study has been debunked over and over. and number two, the bush tax cuts,f you let the bush tax cuts. the crs study was a republican study and found the same thing as the cbo. if you letush tax cuts expire on everybody, yes, you would have negative economic impact. the two staetudies done recentl shows the top two rates, top 2%, virtually no impact. to jonas' point if you raise taxes a the lot and cut spending a lot and so
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austerity plan, that would have an impact. democrats were fopouring more money into the compl with stimulus and republicans wanted austerity and jonas' point is an argument against what conservatives were pushing for. >> brenda: all right. toby. >> what's the question? >> driving a smart car. >> and we did a survey of 1500 small business peoples more in the 2%, revenue or earnings of more than $500,000. i would say that t aual statistics that we got, that the-- it was going to make on their business was much more about health care costs, obamacare than on the marginal right going up. because the small business pers can manipulate that like nobody's business and that's the advanta of taking risk and being a small business person. but on the obamacare side, we had no, probably 75% of people said that it would affect their hiring and that wa a much bigger issue than just the marginal rates.
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todd,n ct, we're seeing many polls come out that show that small business owners right now are starting to cut back, they're not spending as much. >> that's right. look, in the -- in the jobs report for november, if you look, 57% of the js created were of the seasonal variety. he low wage workers, so, going forward, you can only suspect that those jobsill be eventually will end up hitting the unemployment line, but more importantly, small business owners are staying away from hiring right now. for various reasons, lack of demand, they can't accs credit and understand the tax implications that they're going to have to face going forward doesn't make a lot of sense to go out and hire. >> brenda: jonas? >> i don't thi we should worry about a small increase in taxes and unemployment right. and guarantees a long-te solvency of the nation and the treasury, that's the goal here, should be trying to close the loops in one year then we'll have a very high unemployment rate. if some tax increases to julian's point, only mild
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increases in unemployment rate. >> brenda: julian? >> lock, tok, the point was thaf obama was reelected, it was tank. when obama took office, everyone said the stimulus wod fail. 2.7. >> wh? >> 2.7 gdp right now, so gdp is probably. >> brenda. >> between positive 11, positive 12 swing. everyone keeps talking how the obama plan isn't going to work and it isn't going to work and the data seems to show the difference, which is to president clinton'point if you want to live like a republican, vote for a democrat, they'll give you better economics. >> brenda: gary b, go ahead. give your best. >> well, you know, julian's very good at raising the straw man. i don't recall everyone saying the market was going to tank if obama was reelected. to sate that oh, it didn't tank, that's kind of silly.
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the other thing, every time the tax rate habeenried to stick it to the rich. 91% tax rates during fdr years and failed misably and they've gone bacand ended up lowering the rate. it's such a good idea and look for historical examples where it worked. it hasn't worked. if julian wants so much the clinton tax rates, that's fine, i'll go along with that if we had the clinton era vernment spending which we don't. >> brenda: okay. all right, we've got to go. thanks, guys. so, see this? last year, it was a union uproar in wisconsin and now we're seeing this. a different state, same scene, neil and his gang saying all taxpayers should be paying attention. that's at e bottom of the hour, but up here first, did you hear this? >> our people in an overwhelming supported this president and there ought to be a quid pro quo. >> brenda: a detroit council woman demanding a bailout after voting the president in. guess where the president is heading on monday?
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should taxpayeyeyeyeyeyennel.
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i'll sd you back to bulls and bears, me headlines just 30 mines away. >> we showed youhe votes. now show us the money. >> our people in an overwhelmingly supported the reelection of this president and there ought to be a quid pro quo and ought to exercise leadership on that. of course, not just that, but why not. >> brenda: why not, huh?
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detroit council woman joanne watson asked for bailout for the cash-strapped city. the president heading there. >> ofourse not if you want to look up cronyism, and wikipedia, this is cronyism in live television. it's blatant. if she feels so blatant she can feel it this way, who are the people not on mv saying texts and messages, dear mr. president, if we bring home the bacon you'll bring home the bacon to us? this is an unfortunate exmple of the realities of this type of political process. >> brenda: well, jonas, didn't michigan, didn't detroit already get a bailout. >> yes, it was called the auto bailout. and before the election, unformer. two admistrations that d that. everyone wants a bailout and the president's going to get your votes one way or the other. question is coming up more broadly, right now new jersey and an other of states getting
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a huge one bause it was a cast catastrophe. >> and if it's beyond your control and-- >> the case is we ved for you, we get bailout. >> and on the other side, detroit is in a mui-decade collapse that is beyond the scope, it's almt like a hurricane. and i'm not saying it's totally iane for nem to get a disproportionate amount-- >> gary b, you live in maryland, should you and maryland be paying for what detroit or michigan is deciding to do with unions and pensions and how they got themselves in this mess in t first ace? >> exactly, brenda. i kind of agree with jonas. i'm not sure i'd be so quick bail out cities with national catastrophes. they decided to live there and build there. but jonas it right, a lot of
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tiesike detroit are heavily unionized. they invested heavily in these gold-plated cadillac-like government pensions as the revenues have dropped off and diminishednd detroit is a great example, people leaving the cityow for decades. they find they can't pay these pensions. so in a nutshell,hey mismanaged their money and now they're coming-- don't blame the council woman they did help to get president obama elected. look, we did youolid and unfortunately it's not the right way to go, i d't think anyone wants to bail out detroit for mismanagement. >> brenda: julian, what say you. >> i think we have to define the terms, quid pro quo and bailout are unfortunate terms. i think that jas made the rit point. you have to separate long-term and short-term issues. long-term, the same way that the government reformed
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entitlement, the state has to reform pension programs. and many states and governments are doing that. in the short-term, however, it's another question when you're in an economically very difficult time, if the states and local governments don't get money it forces to raise taxes or increase unemployment both are which are bad for the economy. conservative president bush had three efforts to provide state aid to state and local governments that were suffering dung an economic down tournament. >> brenda: quickly, julian. >> and supported in the past. >> brenda: todd, what do u ththink. >> when ist going to end. you bail out detroit and next is harrisburg, pennsylvania. a long list, doug. why do we have to save detroit? pick your city. i don't think it's right you have somebody out there, man made, blew through their budget, going bankrupt, don't have a strategyor recovery right now except to go hat in hand back to washiton. when you look the at all of that, why is it that i have to, as a taxpayer, continue to
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bail out the other cities? it's just t fair and it's not right. >> brenda: got to be the last word there, thanks, guys. well, we all remember this. it's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind. >> brenda: do you believe that it'been 40 years since we last stepped on the moon? now, our very own neil cavuto is hosting a fox news special, fridaye fly me to the moon, never before firsthand accounts. and live tomorrow at 9 astern, it's goingo be out of this world. soon there may be no place to hide. whuncle sam may soon be eyeing every mile you drive. and why someone here says everyone should be sounding the horn.
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>> forget about black boxes in airplanes. what about black bes in your cars? and the government asking nem to put in every car. designed to be a safety measure. gary b, you say this cld add to a mileage tax? >> absolutely, these things start out as a safety measure and i'm sure that's the intent right now. but you know the government is like this big monolith that just needs revenues as fuel. and it's growing and gross. and the easiest way to get revenues is via da. so, y know, people say, oh,
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that will never happen. look, the whole reason obamacare might be successful because the irs has the data. that's a going to allow them to collect all of that obamacare revenues. and this is just one step away from mileage tax, i'm sure you're going to see it if this goes through. >> jonas, this could lead to sar vehicles, we saw that with toyota and the black box helped them. >> it helps them determine if the people pretending they lost control of the car, in fact, could lower your insurance costs and a lot of people get in accidents and pretend like they're not speeding like the governor of new jersey-- former governor. your car has one of these in all likelihood unless you hav a juer. i think 90% of new cars or something, and you almost need the government to kind of mandate the standards of what is collected so specific compmpanies don't do what they want to do with the black box andollow some sort of rules. i'm not with technology in cars and as long as they don't give you speeding tickets
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automatilly when there are no cops around. >> and wait a minute. >> with the technology. >> wait a minute, todd, there's no transparency, no rules, no privacy, guaranteed. isn't this-- >> yeah, you say, it's watching your every move and the government is going to try to tell everybody, this is going to improve the trancecation putting. don't forget about the bridge collapse on i-35 and now you're talking about all of these bridges and hearing frail they are andovernment officials say we need to raise money to improve this. it's the fear facr and so we have to be prepared for it. >> julian? >> jonas is right on erything he stated about the safety factor and secondly, idea that you would use this for a gas tax, that's silly since we have a gas tax and third thing the thing you really have to wch out for. collection of the data to mon advertise it, the kinds of things you buy and where you go. the data you have to have
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strict rules. >> we have that with progressive insurance and the box that tells you where you are and the insance rate 400 bucks. d they found they have a 20% safer outcomes, less accidents tore people who put them in their cars than people who don't. >> go ahead, gary, what? >> i said toby probably also like red light cameras because they'reor safety reasons and now, they can't get rid of it-- >> okay, now what? jonas never speeds. can't believe it. thanks, gys. and thanks to julian for joining us. all right. >> thanks for having me, and you're driving me home, right. >> absolutely, sir, be right there. >> brenda: all right, guys. all of this talk of tax hikes getting u down? well, we have a name that could pick you and
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. >> clayton: i6789 >> predictions. >> making me want to drink, i doubt i'm alone. >> and brown foreman. >> bull or bear on jack. >> i'm bearis. >> brenda: your prediction. >> i like mattel, i think it's going to have a great christmas and i own the stock by the way, i think all-time high in february of next year. >> brenda: toby, bull or bear. >> cl in your stocking. >> brenda: what do you like,